原油：8月增产加速，主力2509合约预计490-550

Core Insights - The macro uncertainty in the crude oil market has increased in August, with geopolitical tensions easing but tariff negotiations remaining unpredictable [1] - OPEC+ has completed its exit from the production cut plan and is likely to accelerate production in August, leading to significant supply pressure [1] - Despite the supply pressure, the current demand during the consumption peak season is expected to provide support for prices, making it difficult for oil prices to decline significantly [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has shown a lack of actual motivation to increase production at current price levels, with June's actual production increase falling short of expectations [1] - The short-term outlook suggests that while oil prices may rise due to seasonal demand, the supply pressure will limit the upside potential [1] - The main contract price for crude oil is expected to range around a specific level, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting a resistance level near 520 [1]