美联储32年来最严重分裂？两理事或联合反对鲍威尔，三大阵营分化加剧，独立性考验在9月

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing its most significant internal division in 32 years, with two board members potentially opposing Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates during the upcoming meeting, marking a historic moment for the FOMC [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July [1][3]. - The FOMC is reportedly divided into three factions: one advocating for immediate rate cuts, a middle group seeking more data, and a cautious faction waiting for clear signs of economic weakness [4][6]. Group 2: Key Players and Their Positions - The aggressive faction, represented by Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, is pushing for an immediate rate cut, citing concerns over a weakening labor market [5][6]. - Waller has publicly stated that a 25 basis point cut is reasonable, emphasizing the urgency of addressing labor market issues before they worsen [5][11]. - The middle faction, led by Mary Daly, is inclined to wait for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts, while the cautious faction, represented by Raphael Bostic, is wary of inflation and prefers to see clear economic signs before acting [6][8]. Group 3: Political Influences and Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, who has been perceived as attempting to influence Fed policies [8][9]. - Market observers are closely watching the July meeting for indications of the Fed's stance on independence and potential political influences, with September being viewed as a critical juncture for the institution [8][10]. - Waller's actions may also be seen as positioning himself for a potential future leadership role within the Fed, further complicating the political landscape [11][12].