单周涨超10%，半夏李蓓迎来顺风期，提示银行股风险大于机遇

Core Insights - Hanxia Investment, led by Li Bei, has seen a significant turnaround with a weekly gain of 10.88% and year-to-date performance exceeding 20% [2] - The macro hedge fund sector has shown mixed results, with Hanxia's performance standing out compared to peers who have struggled this year [2][3] Performance Summary - Hanxia's balanced macro hedge fund series achieved a year-to-date performance of approximately 22%, while the macro hedge fund series reached around 14% [2] - In contrast, other macro hedge funds like Kaifeng and Honghu have reported gains of less than 10% this year, down from last year's impressive returns of 50% and 88% respectively [2] Strategic Adjustments - In June, Hanxia made several strategic adjustments, including reducing gold allocations due to the increasing scale of stablecoins, which are seen as a substitute for gold [2] - The firm reallocated some investments into short- to medium-term government bond futures, capitalizing on a stable interbank funding environment [2] - Hanxia maintained a certain level of net long positions in industrial commodities and kept equity asset allocations consistent with previous months [2] Investment Philosophy - Li Bei has consistently advocated for investments in blue-chip stocks, state-owned enterprises, and low price-to-book (PB) ratio assets, emphasizing a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical stocks [3] - The firm has a long-term bullish stance on over 40% of its equity positions, primarily in stocks that exhibit cyclical characteristics, high dividends, and low PB ratios [2][3] Challenges and Reflections - Li Bei acknowledged past misjudgments, particularly regarding the real estate sector, which led to losses and underperformance in previous years [3][4] - The firm missed opportunities in sectors like small-cap stocks, consumer goods, technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals during the market fluctuations from last year to this year [3][4] - Li Bei's reflections highlighted a need for deeper research into specific sectors and a better understanding of foreign capital movements impacting the Chinese stock market [5]