躲过衰退！欧元区二季度GDP超预期增长0.1% 降息预期回落

Core Insights - Eurozone's economic growth in Q2 significantly slowed down but exceeded market expectations of zero growth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1% in Q2. Year-on-year growth reached 1.4%, higher than the anticipated 1.2% [1][5] - There is a notable divergence within the Eurozone, as Germany and Italy, the largest and third-largest economies respectively, fell into recession [1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate to 2% over the past 13 months to stimulate the economy, but recent data suggests that the economic foundation is better than feared, leading to a reduced necessity for further policy easing [1][12] Economic Performance - Eurozone's GDP for Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1%, down from 0.6% in Q1, while the EU overall grew by 0.2%, lower than the previous quarter's 0.5% [4][5] - Year-on-year GDP growth for the Eurozone was 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5% in the previous quarter, while the EU's growth was 1.5%, down from 1.6% [4][5] - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2, following a 0.3% growth in Q1, with declines in machinery and construction investments [8] - Italy's economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1%, contrary to expectations of slight growth, posing challenges for the government [8] Country-Specific Insights - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, driven mainly by inventory increases, despite weak domestic demand [8] - Spain outperformed expectations with a growth of 0.7% in Q2 [9] - Ireland's economy experienced a contraction, while Lithuania and Austria recorded minimal growth of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [9] Market Expectations - The market currently sees only a 50% chance of the ECB lowering interest rates again before December, reflecting a shift in expectations due to resilient economic performance [12] - There are indications that higher tariffs from new trade agreements may negatively impact the Eurozone's annual growth rate by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, but this has largely been factored into most forecasts [12]