情绪裹挟下沪铜冲高回落 淡季背景下价格将继续受困？【文华观察】

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have intensified compared to the second quarter, with two notable spikes in late June and late July driven by a weakening US dollar and inventory depletion in non-US regions, as well as domestic sentiment around "anti-involution" [1] - The recent rise in copper prices has been limited due to the upcoming tariff decision, with the market's concerns about economic prospects not escalating further during trade negotiations between the US and other countries [1][9] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has led to increased optimism in the industrial sector, but the actual impact on copper prices has been muted, primarily driven by emotional factors rather than substantial demand [2] Group 2 - The current tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist in the short term, with domestic smelters facing challenges due to low processing fees, although the production of refined copper has increased by 9.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The upcoming US tariffs on copper imports, potentially increasing from 25% to 50%, could significantly alter global copper trade dynamics, leading to increased inventories in non-US regions [8] - Recent trade negotiations between the US and other countries have alleviated some market concerns, with the IMF slightly raising global economic growth forecasts, particularly for China [9]