周期ETF单周吸金77亿元 机构：“反内卷”反转行情待验证

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is driving significant inflows into cyclical theme ETFs, with notable net inflows of over 18 billion yuan for Penghua Chemical ETF, 14 billion yuan for Guotai Steel ETF, and 13 billion yuan for GF Infrastructure 50 ETF from July 21 to July 29 [1][4] - The performance of cyclical theme ETFs has been outstanding, with rare earth ETFs and rare metals ETFs returning 42% and 36% year-to-date, respectively, leading the industry theme ETFs [1][3] - The recent market performance indicates a structural market shift, with traditional industries like coal and steel, as well as emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [1][7] Group 2 - Major industry indices such as steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with the steel index rising by 20.39% and the building materials index by 14.46% over the past month [2] - Several ETFs, including rare earth ETFs and steel ETFs, have shown impressive returns, with some rare earth ETFs exceeding 25% returns in the last month [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and is expected to create a long-term mechanism for enterprise transformation, moving away from simple administrative interventions [5][6] Group 3 - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" market trend is still under observation, with analysts suggesting that if demand-side policies are insufficient, the current trend may only represent a temporary rebound [7] - The market performance will vary across sectors, with traditional industries like steel and coal having clearer capacity constraints, while emerging sectors like photovoltaics will need to demonstrate technological advancements [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in cyclical stocks at the bottom of their cycles, particularly in steel and cement, as well as in leading companies in chemical, non-ferrous, and machinery sectors that can benefit from improved industry dynamics [9][10]