多头小心！美股的“夏季狂欢”即将迎来历史考验

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index is entering its historically toughest period of the year after achieving its best consecutive gains since 2020, with analysts noting a seasonal risk as fund managers reassess their portfolios during August and September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has experienced a remarkable rebound, rising 28% over the past 75 trading days, marking the largest increase over such a time span since the market recovery from the pandemic-induced sell-off in 2020 [1] - Historically, the S&P 500 has shown poor performance in August and September, averaging a decline of 0.7% in each month, compared to an average increase of 1.1% in other months [1][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is cautious as any changes in tariff news, economic data, or corporate earnings could trigger sell-offs during these sensitive months [3] - Fund managers are likely to reassess their portfolios upon returning from summer vacations, which may lead to a defensive posture and potential selling of losing positions to minimize capital gains distributions [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite historical trends, there have been positive returns in August in 5 out of the last 10 years, suggesting that the current market may not follow past patterns [4] - Analysts believe that while a pause or pullback in the current rally is expected, any downturn may be short-lived and modest in scale [4][5] - The current high level of stock long positions held by commodity trading advisors (CTAs) indicates confidence in the market, but also raises the risk of sharp reversals if market conditions change [5]