几内亚Friguia氧化铝厂发生罢工，氧化铝价格高开低走，短线应该如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced volatility with a final increase of 1.65%, driven by mixed factors including low warehouse receipts and rising domestic production capacity, leading to expectations of oversupply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum oxide warehouse receipts dropped to a historical low of 0.4 million tons, heightening concerns over warehouse squeeze risks, which provided short-term price support [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity continues to rise, with total operating capacity reaching 89.57 million tons per year and a weekly operating rate increase of 0.45 percentage points to 81.19% [3] - The demand side remains relatively weak, with downstream aluminum plants maintaining high raw material inventories and showing limited acceptance of high-priced aluminum oxide [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A strike at the Friguia aluminum oxide plant in Guinea has raised concerns about overseas supply stability, although it has not yet had a substantial impact on supply [2] - Rising import prices for bauxite from Guinea are pushing up production costs, reinforcing the cost support logic for aluminum oxide [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Institutions are cautious about future price movements, with expectations of wide fluctuations in prices, suggesting resistance at 3500 and support at 3000 [4] - Analysts recommend investors observe the aluminum oxide warehouse registration volume and changes in production capacity, as well as macroeconomic policies [4] - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between low warehouse support and expectations of supply surplus, with a focus on warehouse changes, overseas supply disruptions, and domestic production progress [4]