碳酸锂下探昨日低点后反弹收涨，消息扰动有所减少，后市应该如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced volatility with a final increase of 0.43%, closing at 70,660 yuan/ton, influenced by mixed supply and demand factors [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 72,950 yuan/ton, down by 200 yuan/ton month-on-month, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at 70,850 yuan/ton, down by 150 yuan/ton month-on-month [2] - Supply disruptions from major producers have led to a decrease in weekly supply, but overall supply remains high, with inventories rising to 143,200 tons [2] - Concerns over supply uncertainties are heightened due to mining disruptions in Jiangxi, with potential impacts on market sentiment [2] Demand Structure - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with a decrease in orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries expected, while energy storage demand is increasing due to supportive policies in overseas markets [3] - The three-material market remains optimistic as manufacturers prepare for the traditional peak season, with increased production of medium nickel and high nickel materials [3] - The market is characterized by significant psychological price differences between upstream lithium salt producers and downstream buyers, with the latter preferring a cautious purchasing approach [3] Market Dynamics - The processing fees for lithium iron phosphate are under pressure, and while demand feedback has improved, price negotiations remain intense [3] - Some manufacturers are preemptively securing orders due to rising raw material prices, which supports lithium carbonate prices [3] - Institutions have differing views on future market trends, with some predicting a return to rational pricing and others warning of potential volatility due to market sentiment [4] Key Variables to Monitor - Investors are advised to focus on the progress of mining permits in Jiangxi and the overall supply-demand balance, as these factors will significantly influence market dynamics [4] - The expected surplus for the year is projected to narrow from 80,000 tons to 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [4] - The market is currently in a critical phase of balancing policy expectations with fundamental realities, necessitating close monitoring of inventory changes and downstream purchasing rhythms [4]