重磅数据炸场，特朗普再挥“施压棒”：美联储该降息了！

Group 1: Employment Data - In July, the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 75,000 and reversing the previous month's revised loss of 23,000 jobs [1][2] - The job growth was primarily driven by the recovery in the service sector, with leisure and hospitality adding 46,000 jobs, financial activities adding 28,000, and trade/transportation/utilities adding 18,000 jobs, while education/health services saw a decrease of 38,000 jobs [2] Group 2: GDP Growth - The U.S. GDP grew by 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, surpassing the expected 2.6% and contrasting sharply with the previous value of -0.5%, indicating a strong economic rebound [1][2] Group 3: Inflation and PCE Data - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% but significantly lower than the previous value of 3.5%, suggesting persistent price pressures while indicating a potential easing of inflation [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Following the data release, President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, stating that the 3% GDP figure was "far better than expected" [4] - The market consensus indicates a very low probability of a rate cut in July, with a 96.9% chance of maintaining the current rate, while the probability of a rate cut in September is 55.9% [4][5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain rates unchanged in July, with potential discussions around conditional rate cuts in September if inflation decreases [6]