加拿大央行宣布继续维持基准利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Forecast - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern, with new industry tariff threats persisting [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, supported by stabilizing exports and gradual increases in household spending [1] - However, economic weakness is expected to continue until 2026, with potential for faster growth if tariff issues are resolved or further contraction if they escalate [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March, maintaining this rate in April and June [1]