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两票反对又能怎?美联储依旧不降息
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-30 19:11

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, amid significant political pressure for a rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and reflects the Fed's careful consideration of the economic impact of tariffs on inflation and employment [1][2]. - The policy statement showed little change, signaling no immediate intention to lower rates, despite two officials dissenting and calling for a 25 basis point cut [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, but a slowdown in private sector and consumer demand from 1.9% to 1.2% [4]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as tariffs may push prices higher, potentially keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the fifth consecutive year [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation, with some officials arguing that current rates are too high for the economic situation [6]. - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on the influence of tariffs on inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market, with investors estimating a two-thirds probability of a cut [5][6].