美联储FOMC声明及鲍威尔发布会重点：维持基准利率不变，30多年来首次有两位理事投反对票

Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]