分析人士：生猪期货远月预期走强

Core Viewpoint - Since early June, live pig futures prices have shown a trend of fluctuating upward, but recently have experienced a pullback due to overall macro sentiment. As of July 30, the main contract for live pig futures closed at 14,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton or 4.5% from the closing price of 13,475 yuan/ton on June 9 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The live pig spot price has continued to decline since August 2024 due to excess production capacity. As of June 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.43 million, showing a negligible decline of less than 1% from the peak at the end of 2024 [1]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a series of regulatory measures since June, including suspending the expansion of breeding sows and regulating secondary fattening. Following these measures, leading breeding companies quickly responded, leading to a rebound in live pig spot prices from their lows [1]. - As of July 3, the average daily price of live pigs in the mainstream market was 15.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.56 yuan/kg or 11% from the low point in early June [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the rebound in prices, supply-side pressures have not been effectively alleviated, and the current period is characterized by weak demand. The price of live pigs has shown a pullback after reaching a high in July [2][3]. - The recent "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry are expected to effectively eliminate outdated production capacity and control the weight of market pigs, which may lead to a decrease in live pig inventory [2]. - The average daily slaughter volume has decreased by 7.93% compared to June, making it difficult to absorb the output, and the spot price in Henan has dropped from 15.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 14 yuan/kg [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to gradually take effect, potentially reducing the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million. This is likely to provide bottom support for long-term contracts [4]. - The increasing proportion of large-scale breeding enterprises is expected to smooth out the volatility of pig prices, reducing the impact of significant fluctuations in production capacity on prices [4]. - In 2024, the number of breeding sows among major listed companies is projected to increase by 6.12%, and the annual output of the top 10 listed pig companies is expected to reach 142.75 million heads, an increase of 10.56% compared to 2023 [4].