摩根士丹利：关税风险又来了，对普通投资者意味着什么？

Group 1 - The upcoming tariff deadline on August 1 could lead to increased tariffs on major trading partners, including Europe, Canada, and Mexico, which together account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [1][2] - The potential impact of a 5% tariff increase on these partners could result in a negative shock to U.S. GDP that is twice as severe as previous measures against smaller economies [2] - The effects of tariffs are not limited to the macroeconomic level; different sectors in the U.S. stock market will experience varying impacts, necessitating continued attention to U.S. trade policy in investment strategies [2][5] Group 2 - The most likely economic scenario is "slowing growth with persistent inflation," with a probability of 40%, driven by the negative impacts of trade and immigration restrictions [4] - A second scenario of optimistic acceleration exists, with a 20% probability, contingent on easing trade and immigration policies or fiscal measures stimulating economic activity [4] - The third scenario, "economic slowdown triggered by trade," also holds a 40% probability, where further tariff increases could lead to a mild recession [4] Group 3 - In the fixed income market, an economic slowdown due to tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury prices as the market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve [5] - The U.S. stock market faces a complex situation; while slowing growth may not disrupt the upward trend of the S&P index, different sectors will react differently to trade policies [5] - Industrial and capital goods companies may benefit from domestic investment despite rising costs, while consumer goods and retail sectors face greater pressure due to increased import costs and limited pricing power [5]