帮主郑重：鲍威尔打太极，9月降息这事儿还得看"脸色"！

Group 1 - The core message from Powell's speech indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 63% to 45.7% following his comments [1][3] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in consumer spending and real estate, while asserting that the economy remains in a stable state [3] - His remarks on inflation suggest a complex stance, stating that the process of inflation decline is halfway complete, yet warning that tariffs could increase commodity prices, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is now prioritizing "risk balance," meaning that if the economy continues to weaken, a rate cut is likely, but if inflation rises unexpectedly, they may reconsider [4] - Upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a target inflation rate of below 2.8% being a key indicator [4] - The market's reaction to Powell's speech reflects a broader uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of data as the true "referee" in the Fed's decision-making process [4]