期货日报：美联储宣布利率不变，金价显著回调

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which remains unchanged, leading to a significant price drop in gold futures [1][2]. Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a stronger dollar index, which may negatively impact gold and silver prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding tariffs on imports from India and potential sanctions on Russia, are increasing market risk aversion [2]. - Despite expectations of a rate hold, high interest rates and persistent core inflation in the U.S. are keeping real yields and the dollar index strong, which is bearish for precious metals [2]. Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.46 billion last week, with a total net inflow of $8.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest in gold during price corrections [3]. - In China, despite a record high in gold prices, major funds have seen significant net redemptions, totaling approximately 3.2 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high [3]. - The outlook for gold prices may improve if the Federal Reserve provides clearer signals regarding future rate cuts, potentially aligning overseas and Chinese capital flows [3]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term resistance for gold prices is noted due to resilient U.S. economic data and reduced inflation risks, with the Fed not in a hurry to cut rates [4]. - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise due to anticipated declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, strong physical demand, and limited growth in gold supply [4].