美联储浇灭了世界的希望

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, disregarding significant pressure from President Trump for a rate cut, which has dampened hopes among investors for a September rate decrease [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's recent policy statement was characterized by a "dovish policy statement + hawkish remarks," leaning overall towards a hawkish stance [2]. - The description of economic growth was changed to "moderate" from "strong," suggesting a potential opening for rate cuts [2]. - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, indicating a split opinion within the board, which is a rare occurrence since 1993 [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that no decisions have been made regarding September and that the Fed is still assessing the impact of Trump's trade policies on inflation, employment, and economic growth [3]. - The recent GDP growth of 3% in Q2 exceeded expectations, complicating the outlook for rate cuts, as it does not provide a clear justification for either a cut or a victory declaration [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped to 50% from 65% prior to the meeting [6]. - The market reacted with a surge in the dollar, a drop in gold prices, and a decline in U.S. stocks, indicating increased volatility [6].