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乔锋智能(301603):国内数控机床小巨人 穿越周期实现高成长

Group 1 - The company focuses on the mid-to-high-end CNC machine tool sector, with main products including vertical machining centers, gantry machining centers, and horizontal machining centers, applied in various industries such as general equipment, consumer electronics, automotive parts, molds, aerospace, and communications [1] - The CNC machine tool market in China is vast, with a market size in the hundreds of billions, low concentration, and high-end machine tools being dominated by foreign companies, indicating long-term potential for domestic substitution [1] - The company is expanding into high-growth downstream sectors, with continuous breakthroughs in key technologies for high-end machine tools, leading to rapid growth in contract liabilities and promising sustained performance growth [1] Group 2 - The CNC machine tool market has significant growth potential through import substitution and overseas expansion, with China's machine tool export surplus increasing since 2022, making it the fourth largest surplus country after Germany, Japan, and Italy [2] - Core technology breakthroughs are enabling the company to gradually penetrate the mid-to-high-end machine tool market, where competition is primarily driven by technology for high-end products, stability for mid-range products, and price for low-end products [2] - The company has seen rapid growth in contract liabilities due to its alignment with market demand, active expansion into general automation and consumer electronics markets, and the realization of self-production of key components, enhancing product competitiveness and gross margins [2] Group 3 - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 270 million, 330 million, and 400 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 32%, 22%, and 23% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 21, and 17 times [2] - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 78.24 yuan is set for 2025, with an initial coverage rating of "buy" [2]