SCC(SH:600740) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-07-31 02:53Group 1 - The recent surge in coke prices is attributed to cost support and improved demand, with major steel mills in Tangshan raising wet coke prices by 50 CNY/ton and dry coke by 55 CNY/ton effective from July 29, 2025 [1][2] - The coke market has experienced a total increase of 200 CNY/ton since July 15, with expectations of further increases totaling around 300 CNY/ton [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in coke prices, with an average drop of 33.12% year-on-year due to weak domestic demand in the steel industry [1][2] Group 2 - The rebound in coke prices is driven by a decrease in domestic supply of coking coal since mid-June due to environmental and safety regulations, leading to a better supply-demand balance [2] - The price of coking coal has increased significantly, with a maximum rise of 350-400 CNY/ton, which has substantially raised the production costs for coke [2][6] - Despite the price increases, many coke enterprises are still facing losses, with only two out of seven forecasted companies expected to avoid losses in the first half of 2025 [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for coke remains stable, with steel mills actively replenishing their inventories, as indicated by an average daily supply of 2.413 million tons of molten iron in July, which is 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3] - The profitability of the steel industry has improved, with several companies forecasting significant profit increases, contrasting with the ongoing losses faced by coke producers [4][5] Group 4 - Short-term forecasts suggest that coke prices may continue to rise due to high coking coal prices and strong demand from steel mills, with a potential fifth price increase of 50 CNY/ton expected [7][8] - Long-term expectations indicate that the traditional peak consumption season in September and October may lead to increased demand for coke, although there are concerns about potential production cuts in the steel sector [8]