Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell indicating potential changes in future guidance [1] - There is increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a September cut dropping from 70% to 40% following the July meeting [1][2] - Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and inflation data, will be closely monitored before the September meeting, with inflation seen at a turning point [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to avoid premature tightening or loosening of monetary policy, which could lead to future volatility [2] - If economic data remains stable, Aberdeen expects yields to stay high, influenced by Powell's strong tone and ongoing criticism from Trump regarding Fed policies [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to several factors, including potential price pressures from tariffs and divergent central bank policies [3] - Asian stock markets may face short-term pressure from rising US rates and a strong dollar, but potential bilateral trade agreements could alleviate these pressures [3] Group 4 - China is highlighted for its strong policy tools, including monetary easing and fiscal support, to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, bolstering investor confidence [5] - South Korea presents attractive investment opportunities driven by growth-oriented reforms and active negotiations with the US to avoid tariffs [5] - Thailand is negotiating to reduce tariffs on 90% of US goods, which, along with improving domestic demand, may support its stock market in the short term [5]
【大行报告】安本:2025年美联储将减息一次或完全不减息
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-31 03:29