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央行最新问卷调查结果出炉 释放积极信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-31 03:55

Core Insights - The majority of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][4] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 is 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers considering the economy normal and 35.8% viewing it as "cold" [3][4] - The entrepreneur macroeconomic heat index stands at 26%, with 50.8% of entrepreneurs believing the economy is "normal" and 48.6% considering it "cold" [3][4] - The operating prosperity index and profit index for entrepreneurs have increased to 49.3% and 53.2%, respectively, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting increased profits or reduced losses, up from 26% in the previous quarter [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Perception - The banker monetary policy perception index is at 74.6%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 50% of bankers viewing the policy as "loose" [4] - The expected monetary policy perception index for the next quarter is 75.9%, indicating a positive outlook [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The resident income perception index for Q2 is 45%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [5] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% of residents believing the job market is favorable [5] - In terms of spending intentions for the next three months, tourism has surpassed education as the top choice at 32.1%, followed by education at 31.9% and healthcare at 29.3% [7] Group 4: Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," while 63.8% prefer "more savings," indicating a shift in consumer sentiment [6] - The top five investment preferences among residents are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [6]