降息又落空！美联储决策层32年来首现分裂，特朗普目标9月实现？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting since early 2025 where rates were held steady, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve noted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the first half of the year, which could provide a basis for future rate cuts if the trend continues [3]. - The Fed emphasized high uncertainty in the economic outlook, with risks to both inflation and employment targets [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, voted against the decision to maintain rates, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a rate decision simultaneously [7]. - Their dissent reflects growing concerns about a weakening labor market, with Waller warning of stagnating job growth and Bowman expressing fears that delaying rate cuts could exacerbate recession risks [7]. Group 3: Political Pressure - President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to implement significant rate cuts, even threatening to dismiss Chairman Powell, which has not influenced the Fed's policy direction [5][9]. - Powell's reluctance to address his future at the Fed amid ongoing political pressure signals potential tensions between the Fed and the White House [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for a September rate cut significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 68% to 45%, while the likelihood of maintaining rates rose to 55% [10]. - Despite the drop in rate cut expectations, U.S. stock markets showed restrained reactions, indicating investor resilience and a wait-and-see approach for further signals [12].