中信建投应瑛：香港稳定币开闸，数字人民币 、RWA 如何破局

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong marks a significant shift in the international payment landscape, aiming to enhance the global status of Hong Kong as a virtual asset hub and facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi while promoting a "de-dollarization" strategy [1] Group 1: Stablecoin and Digital Currency - Hong Kong's stablecoin and digital Renminbi are complementary rather than competitive, working together to create a "de-dollarized" payment network through "currency bridges" and on-chain payments [2] - The stablecoin is positioned as a fiat currency on-chain, while Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization focuses on asset financing and trading [3] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The high entry barrier for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong (HKD 25 million capital and 100% high liquidity asset reserve) may guide the market towards licensed brokers and banks, but technology giants can also play a significant role due to their extensive application scenarios [5][7] - The stablecoin market is expected to see increased competition in the distribution and application phases, providing brokers with new revenue opportunities in virtual asset trading services [7] Group 3: Technological and Operational Challenges - The main technical challenge lies in accurately reflecting the value of on-chain assets [4] - The successful implementation of a "H-share model 2.0" requires addressing foreign exchange controls, financial compliance, and anti-money laundering reviews [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Projections - The trading volume of stablecoins is projected to exceed that of Visa and Mastercard by 2024, with a 53% increase in active wallets in Hong Kong [8][10] - The application of stablecoins in cross-border payments is driven by regulatory improvements, technological advancements, and growing market demand, positioning it as a core application scenario [8] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The emergence of stablecoins may impact the financing space for emerging markets, particularly as U.S. stablecoins anchor to low-risk assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [9] - Tokenization of high-yield Hong Kong stocks could attract international capital with a higher risk appetite [9]