美联储顶住降息压力维持利率不变，32年来首现两人“唱反调”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged was interpreted as slightly hawkish, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rose [1]. - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities [1]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9 supported maintaining rates, while two members voted for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members expressed dissent [2]. - The dissenting members were nominated by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance on Independence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed will not adjust its rate path due to political pressure, asserting that the central bank's goals are to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation [3]. - Powell's statements reflect a strong commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence, which is supported at the congressional level [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed's statement highlighted increased economic risks and uncertainty, noting a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year and persistent high inflation [4]. - The Fed remains focused on balancing employment and inflation risks, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may face downward pressure in the third quarter, potentially leading to a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]. - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation and subsequent fiscal measures may limit the likelihood of further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5].