Group 1 - The market currently reflects less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations of no more than two cuts in the next three meetings [1] - Morgan Asset Management still anticipates a policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year, likely in December, contingent on significant deterioration in the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting marked the first instance in over 30 years with two dissenters, indicating a desire to be seen as effective rather than overly hawkish or dovish [1] Group 2 - Despite recent increases in inflation rates, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been limited, with the Fed viewing tariff-driven price increases as a level change rather than a persistent inflation driver [2] - The bond market's slight increase in yields reflects the pricing effect of policy easing, while the dollar has strengthened, suggesting a more hawkish interpretation of recent Fed meetings [2] - Morgan Asset Management believes that tariffs will drag on economic growth and contribute to rising inflation throughout the year, but fiscal policy's delayed effects will boost growth by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The narrow path to avoid recession and long-term inflation pressures is seen as favorable for risk assets, although it is premature to declare the removal of policy risks [3] - Morgan Asset Management prefers quality in stock and fixed-income portfolios and is looking for relative value opportunities outside the U.S., including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets [3]
摩根资管：美联储或在12月降息 投资组合偏向欧日及新兴市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-31 05:55