黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-7-31）降息预期降温 打压黄金走势

Core Viewpoint - As of July 30, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 955.37 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day, amid a significant drop in spot gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 955.37 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 0.86 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 30, spot gold prices fell sharply, breaking below the $3,300 mark, reaching a low of $3,267.95 per ounce, and closing at $3,274.92 per ounce, down $51.66 or 1.55% [6]. - Gold prices initially maintained above $3,330 per ounce but dropped significantly during the U.S. trading session due to economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest decisions [6]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. ADP employment report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, indicating a robust labor market and rising corporate hiring intentions [6]. - The second-quarter economic growth in the U.S. surpassed expectations, reducing the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with increasing internal dissent as two voting members supported a rate cut [7]. - The Fed's dovish statement suggests a higher likelihood of a rate cut in September, although Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on this during the press conference, which tempered market expectations for a rate cut [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Following the breach of the $3,300 level, technical indicators for gold have worsened, indicating further downside risk [7]. - The short-term support level is around $3,245, and if breached, gold prices could target $3,200 and the May 15 low of $3,120 [7].