走向“影子QE”？贝森特要主导美债利率

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is significantly expanding its bond buyback program to lower long-term yields, with operations for long-term U.S. Treasuries (10 to 30 years) doubling in frequency and quarterly liquidity support limits raised from $30 billion to $38 billion, aiming for an annual buyback target exceeding $300 billion [1] - The Treasury will continue to issue short-term U.S. Treasuries and slightly increase the sale of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), with the auction size for 10-year TIPS reopening set to increase to $19 billion and 5-year TIPS new issuance to $26 billion [1] - This strategy of using new short-term debt issuance to fund the purchase of existing long-term debt is functionally similar to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) [1] Group 2 - High long-term bond yields are seen as a constraint on monetary policy and increase the cost of servicing U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.36% and the 30-year yield nearing the psychological level of 5% [3][4] - The Treasury maintains a conservative approach to issuing medium- to long-term bonds, planning to keep auction sizes for 2 to 30-year bonds unchanged for at least the next few quarters [5] Group 3 - The reliance on short-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to continue rising, with short-term debt currently making up about 20% of the U.S. Treasury market, aligning with recommendations from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) [7] - Analysts express concerns that over-reliance on short-term debt could lead to increased volatility in financing costs and necessitate higher cash reserves to manage potential rollover risks [7] Group 4 - Market reactions to the Treasury's expanded buyback plan are mixed, with some analysts suggesting that it may be premature to label it as "shadow QE," while others see it as a step towards coordinated policy efforts between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve [8][9] - There are concerns that internal government policies, such as tariffs and a large budget proposal, may counteract efforts to lower long-term rates, with some investment managers noting that the scale of the buyback may be insufficient to counteract rising yield trends driven by inflation and deficit expectations [10]