7月“软数据”放缓

Group 1 - Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1, indicating a seasonal slowdown slightly greater than historical averages [4][6] - The decline in orders was slightly greater than production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply, with new orders index at 49.4 and production index at 50.5 [6][7][8] - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with raw material purchase price index rising by 3.1 points and factory price index rising by 2.1 points, indicating effective transmission from upstream to downstream [8][9] Group 2 - Business activity expectations reached a four-month high, with the PMI production activity expectation index at 52.6, suggesting a positive impact of price elasticity on business expectations as long as the contraction in quantity is manageable [11] - The construction industry showed a month-on-month decline, attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales, with construction PMI at 50.6 and new orders index at 42.7 [12][13] - The Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 1.6 points to 47.7, reflecting a distribution of "declining sales, rising profits" consistent with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [13][14] Group 3 - The EPMI, PMI, and BCI all pointed in the same direction, indicating a need to adjust investment strategies to focus on areas benefiting from nominal GDP improvement and structural policy cues [18]