美联储放鹰，却被A股大佬伏击！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish signals on interest rates have caused a significant market reaction, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 65% to 40% [1] - The unusual dissent among Federal Reserve board members during the meeting highlights internal divisions within the monetary policy committee, marking a rare occurrence in its history [3] - Prior to Powell's speech, there was an abnormal trading volume in the U.S. Treasury futures market, indicating that market participants may have anticipated the hawkish stance [5] Group 2 - The article discusses the lagging nature of news compared to market movements, suggesting that investors often act on information before it becomes widely known [6] - A unique "running culture" in the A-share market allows participants to anticipate policy changes, as evidenced by the decline in institutional holdings of major liquor stocks before the official announcement of a "liquor ban" [6][7] - The "information ladder theory" in behavioral finance indicates that different levels of market participants receive information at different times, with institutional investors often acting before retail investors [8] Group 3 - Data analysis can reveal insights into institutional investor behavior, as seen in the liquor sector where a decline in "institutional activity" preceded policy announcements [9] - The case of Nuotai Bio demonstrates that market reactions can defy expectations, as the stock rose significantly after a negative announcement, suggesting that institutional activity was already high prior to the news [11] - The article emphasizes the importance of observing data over news, as discrepancies between the two can indicate underlying market truths [13] Group 4 - Anomalous trading in the offshore RMB forward contracts before Powell's speech suggests that market participants were positioning themselves based on anticipated outcomes rather than prevailing news narratives [14] - The article advocates for investors to develop their own data observation systems to avoid being overly reliant on news, promoting a "data-driven" mindset [14][16] - The fundamental principle that capital flows dictate price movements remains unchanged, regardless of external market conditions [15]