Novo Nordisk(US:NVO) 智通财经网·2025-07-31 07:47Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk has experienced a significant stock decline of nearly 30% in recent days, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 60%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the "Ozempic era" in the market [1][2]. Company Performance - Novo Nordisk, a leader in the GLP-1 drug revolution, has revised its full-year sales growth forecast from 13%-21% to 8%-14%, and operating profit growth from 16%-24% to 10%-16%, which has directly impacted its stock price and raised fears about weakening demand for its weight-loss drugs [2][5]. - The company has announced a change in leadership, with CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepping down due to stock performance pressures, and Maziar Mike Doustdar taking over, leading to mixed reactions among investors regarding the new CEO's experience [2][12]. Market Challenges - Demand for GLP-1 drugs is facing direct challenges, as the high cost of treatment (approximately $1,000 per month for Ozempic) and limited insurance coverage for weight-loss indications are pushing patients towards cheaper alternatives [5][6]. - Competitive pressure is increasing, with Eli Lilly's drug showing superior weight loss results in clinical trials compared to Wegovy, and the potential for generic versions of semaglutide to enter the market as patents expire [6][9]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite a 60% drop in stock price, Novo Nordisk's current expected P/E ratio is around 17, with an enterprise value to sales ratio exceeding 6, indicating that while the stock is not considered expensive, it is also not undervalued [6][12]. - Historical trends in the pharmaceutical industry suggest that blockbuster drugs often lead to significant stock volatility, as seen with companies like Gilead and Moderna, indicating that Novo Nordisk's stock may need to adjust to new growth rates and competitive pressures [7][9]. Future Outlook - Potential turning points for Novo Nordisk include the approval and validation of a higher dose of Wegovy, expansion of insurance coverage, regulatory tightening on compound drug usage, and market expansion into emerging markets [12][14]. - The company may not face a complete collapse, but it is transitioning from being an "innovation star" to a more conventional pharmaceutical company, with future stock performance dependent on its ability to create differentiated value through new products and market strategies [14].