美国GDP虚假繁荣：进口暴跌推高增长，但核心需求增速大幅放缓

Core Insights - The apparent growth in the US GDP for Q2 is misleading, primarily due to a significant drop in imports which artificially inflated the overall data, masking a clear slowdown in domestic demand [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 2.5%, but this figure is heavily distorted by trade factors, with imports plummeting by 30.3% in Q2 after a 37.9% surge in Q1 [1][3] - Domestic private final purchases growth has sharply declined from 2.7% the previous year to 1.2%, indicating cooling internal economic activity [2][6] Consumer Spending - Final domestic sales growth in Q2 was only 1.1%, down from 1.5% in Q1, and significantly lower than projected growth rates of 3.4% in H2 2024 and 2.8% in H1 2024 [5] - While actual personal consumption increased from 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, it remains below 2024 levels, with durable goods consumption primarily supported by a 16.2% increase in auto sales [6] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment growth significantly slowed in Q2, with construction investment declining by 10.3% following a 2.4% drop in Q1, and residential investment falling by 4.6% [7] - Business investment related to artificial intelligence was weaker than expected, with declines in power plant investments and a slowdown in data center and IT investments, contradicting many analysts' optimistic forecasts [7] Future Economic Outlook - Despite the better-than-expected Q2 GDP data, forecasts indicate a continued economic slowdown, with restrictive trade and immigration policies expected to outweigh benefits from fiscal policy and deregulation [9] - The core PCE price index rose to an annualized rate of 2.54% in Q2, indicating persistent price pressures [9]