金老虎：美联储鹰鸽分歧加剧，黄金成替罪羔羊，反弹3328弱势空

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between hawkish and dovish views within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, leading to a weak performance in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating between 3300 and 3350 [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence - The Federal Reserve's July meeting maintained interest rates, but notable internal dissent emerged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while Powell emphasized no decisions had been made regarding September rates [3]. - The core disagreement stems from differing economic outlooks: hawks are concerned about inflation persistence due to tariffs, while doves focus on marginal deterioration in the job market [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 68% in June to 45%, although the market still anticipates at least one cut this year [4]. - Fluctuations in market expectations have caused gold to be influenced by both "policy expectation trading" and "actual data validation," leading to significant price movements [4]. Group 3: Commodity Market Interactions - A stronger dollar and increased risk appetite have impacted other commodity prices, with oil prices rising over 3% and drawing funds away from precious metals [6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price has shown a downward trend, breaking below the previous support level of 3345, with a focus on the 3250 support level [8]. - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with moving averages indicating downward momentum and Bollinger Bands showing a downward trend [8].