Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-31 09:49Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 initiates coverage on China Biopharmaceutical (01177) with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of HKD 9.40 based on a 10-year DCF model with a WACC of 9.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [1] Group 1: Innovation and R&D - The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation towards innovation, with R&D expenditure expected to account for 17.6% of revenue in 2024, up from 9.9% in 2019 [2] - By the end of 2024, the company will have received approval for 17 innovative drugs, with innovative product revenue contributing 42% of total revenue, compared to 11% in 2015 [2] - The company has increased its focus on License in transactions, averaging over 3 deals per year from 2019 to 2024, enhancing its innovative drug pipeline [2] Group 2: Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company’s innovative R&D focuses on four key areas: oncology, liver disease/metabolism, respiratory, and surgical/pain management, resulting in a rich pipeline [3] - Anlotinib has become a cornerstone product in oncology, with 9 approved indications and 4 NDA submissions as of July 2025, and is expected to expand into first-line treatment through combination with immunotherapy [3] - The company has several products with potential for overseas licensing, including TQC3721, Rovafatinib, TQB2102, and others, indicating strong prospects for international collaboration [2][3] Group 3: Biosimilars and Generic Drugs - The company has received approval for 7 biosimilars, with a total market capacity of RMB 24 billion in 2024, and is expected to see rapid sales growth, particularly for the first biosimilar of Pertuzumab [4] - The chemical generic drug business has shown resilience during recent policy adjustments, with a projected revenue growth of 3.1% YoY in 2024 [4] - The impact of generic drug procurement policies has largely dissipated, with the tenth batch of procurement accounting for only 1% of the company’s total revenue in 2024 [4]