Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, with Powell indicating no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The ADP report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous decrease of 23,000, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 3%, exceeding the previous value of 2.4% and the expected -0.5%, further pressuring gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices fell from around $3,330 to a low of $3,267 after the Fed's decision [1] - Analysts suggest that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50%, although two rate cuts are still anticipated this year if strong data continues [1] - Technically, gold is in a bearish trend, with resistance at $3,310 and support at $3,260 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, which was higher than the previous decrease of 3.169 million barrels and the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels, negatively affecting oil prices [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.724 million barrels to 22.84 million barrels, exceeding expectations and providing support for oil prices [2] - Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine conflict does not end within ten days raised concerns about potential supply tightness, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - A trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea, which includes a reduction in tariffs and significant investments, is expected to boost short-term oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating between $64 and $69.50, with a recent breakout above $69.50 indicating a higher probability of further increases, targeting $71.70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded after a decline, suggesting that the recent pullback may be nearing its end, with potential for further increases [3] - The index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with key support at 40,500 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop, reaching the lowest point since early April, erasing gains from the past three and a half months [4] - There are no signs of a bottoming out in the hourly chart, indicating a potential for further declines [4] - Key support for copper is noted at $4.21, with resistance at $4.47 [4]
百利好晚盘分析：维持利率不变 淡化降息预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-31 09:46