从武斗到政权割据：苏丹内战“利比亚化”，域内外势力推波助澜

Core Points - The Sudanese civil war has escalated into a political confrontation with the establishment of a "parallel government" by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on July 26, 2023, indicating a shift from military to political conflict [1][2] - The RSF, along with its allies, has gained significant military control and is asserting its political independence, challenging the legitimacy of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) [3][5] - The ongoing conflict has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with over 150,000 deaths and millions displaced, drawing comparisons to other global conflicts [7][11] Group 1: Political Developments - The RSF has formed a political alliance called the "Sudan Founding Alliance," which includes 23 political and armed groups, and has begun operating its own government structures [5][6] - The SAF has attempted to consolidate power by proposing a transitional government and amending the constitution to exclude the RSF and its allies from power [4][6] - The establishment of the "parallel government" by the RSF is a direct response to the SAF's actions and reflects the deepening political divide in Sudan [6][7] Group 2: Military Dynamics - The RSF has approximately 120,000 troops and controls significant territories, including key locations in Darfur and parts of Khartoum [3][4] - The SAF has launched military offensives to regain control over lost territories, particularly targeting the capital [4][5] - The conflict has seen external influences, with various countries providing support to both the RSF and SAF, complicating the military landscape [8][9] Group 3: Humanitarian Impact - The civil war has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, with 8.85 million people displaced and 3.5 million becoming refugees [7][11] - The Sudan Doctors Union reports that at least 520,000 children have died from malnutrition due to the ongoing conflict [7] - The situation in Sudan is increasingly dire, with the potential for further escalation and regional instability [11]