Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-31 10:16Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a quick reversal after initially rising, reflecting a cooling optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts in September [1][3] - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, details indicate a slowdown in consumer spending and private investment, suggesting economic fatigue under high interest rates [3][4] - The market reacted negatively to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which emphasized persistent inflation and a resilient job market, undermining expectations for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer companies showed stable performance but revealed structural contradictions due to high baseline pressures and weak consumption [4] - Starbucks reported better-than-expected earnings but saw a slight decline in stock price, indicating market concerns about future profit margins [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is around 65%, but this is slowly decreasing as inflation data and Fed attitudes diverge [4][5] Group 3 - The market's current expectation is for a "soft landing," but uncertainty around the pace of rate cuts is making investors cautious [5] - The upcoming earnings reports will be crucial in determining whether the U.S. stock market can maintain its recent upward trend [5] - If the market realizes that rate cuts are not guaranteed, volatility may increase again [5]