美国对铜关税再度生变 征税范围不及预期【文华解读】

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, particularly a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][3]. Market Reaction - COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the decline continuing, while LME copper showed minimal reaction, resulting in a significant narrowing of the price spread between COMEX and LME copper [1][4]. - The collapse of the abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper means that traders will lack incentives to transport copper from other regions to the U.S., leading to concerns about limited copper inflow into the U.S. market [4]. Implications for Supply and Demand - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, the inflow of copper from other regions may be restricted, potentially leading to a re-export scenario [4]. - LME copper inventories have accumulated nearly 50,000 tons since early July, with expectations of further increases in inventory levels due to the reduced impact of tariffs on refined copper [4]. Future Considerations - President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with potential phased tariffs starting in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. administration's directive includes measures to support the domestic copper industry, such as requiring that 25% of high-quality scrap copper produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [5].