Lilly(US:LLY) CNBCยท2025-07-31 10:45Core Insights - Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro demonstrated heart health benefits in a late-stage trial compared to Trulicity, meeting the study's primary goal of non-inferiority in treating Type 2 diabetes with cardiovascular disease [2][4] - Despite the positive results, Eli Lilly's shares fell 4% in premarket trading as the outcomes did not exceed some analysts' expectations for superiority over Trulicity [2][3] - The trial showed Mounjaro reduced the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, or stroke by 8% compared to Trulicity, with additional benefits including a 16% lower rate of all-cause mortality [4][5] Company Positioning - Eli Lilly believes the new data strengthens Mounjaro's position as the preferred choice for Type 2 diabetes patients, especially as Trulicity faces patent expiration in 2027 [3][10] - The company plans to submit heart health data to global regulators by the end of the year, potentially leading to approvals for Mounjaro's use in cardiovascular health by 2026 [11] Market Dynamics - Mounjaro's current approval already covers many patients with Type 2 diabetes who also have cardiovascular disease, as approximately 30% of these patients are affected [13] - Analysts suggest that even if Mounjaro shows similar heart health benefits as Trulicity, it may not significantly change prescribing behaviors among doctors [14][15] Clinical Insights - The trial was the longest and largest to date on tirzepatide, enrolling over 13,000 participants, and showed Mounjaro's advantages in cardiovascular measures and weight loss [4][16] - Some clinicians noted that the difference in all-cause mortality rates between Mounjaro and Trulicity is clinically significant, aiding in treatment decision-making [6][7] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is solidifying its lead over Novo Nordisk in the growing market for diabetes and weight loss drugs, with both companies demonstrating additional health benefits of their products [10]