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Core Points - The U.S. is intensifying trade negotiations with major partners as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, with President Trump asserting that the deadline will not be extended [1] - Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which is higher than the 15%-20% range for other Asian countries, and threatens additional penalties due to India's energy purchases from Russia [1] - Despite the tense diplomatic environment, the U.S. market remains relatively calm, with the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, although some Wall Street firms warn that the market may be underestimating the potential impact of trade policy shifts [1][4] Negotiation Dynamics - As the deadline nears, Canada and Mexico have sent delegations to Washington for intense closed-door talks, but the outcome remains uncertain [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed cautious optimism about the negotiations, indicating they are complex and may not conclude by the deadline [2] - The Trump administration announced a preliminary trade agreement with South Korea, which includes a 15% tariff and a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects [2] Trump's Involvement - President Trump is deeply involved in the negotiations, often overruling senior aides and demanding more concessions from other countries [3] - Trump's personal intervention extends to specific discussions, including direct communication with India's trade minister [3] - A new executive order is expected to be signed by Trump to finalize tariff rates and prevent automatic reversion to previously announced levels [3] Market Reactions - The U.S. financial markets show resilience, with the S&P 500 index and the dollar reaching multi-month highs, as traders bet that Trump will not implement drastic tariffs [4] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution against complacency, noting that while the economic data has not collapsed, the potential impact of trade policies should not be underestimated [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the potential negative effects of retaliatory tariffs, suggesting that short-term tariffs would not lead to a catastrophic outcome if negotiations continue in good faith [5]