又一次全球市场的逻辑该变了！

Group 1 - The consensus among global investors has shifted, with a reversal in the previous belief that Trump's tariff policies and fiscal deficits would harm the dollar and US stock market, leading to a preference for European stocks, emerging markets, and gold as safe havens [1] - The US economy showed an unexpected rebound in Q2, resulting in the dollar ending its downward trend and potentially achieving its first monthly increase in 2025 with a rise of 3% [1] - The previously strong performance of European stocks, emerging market assets, and gold has cooled, with gold experiencing its first three-month decline since November last year, and the euro falling below 1.15 against the dollar, marking the largest monthly decline since May 2023 [1] Group 2 - The trend of shorting the dollar and US assets has been one of the most crowded trades in the market, with investors now gradually reallocating to dollar assets, as the US economy and corporate earnings are expected to outperform Europe [2] - Barclays analysis indicates that the previous preference for international assets over US assets was driven by speculative shorting of the dollar, a trend that is now weakening, particularly as trend-following hedge funds have closed their short positions on US Treasuries and reduced exposure to European stocks [2] - A recent trade agreement framework between the US and Europe has alleviated some concerns over global trade tensions, impacting the premium logic associated with non-US assets like the euro, gold, and emerging markets [2] Group 3 - There are doubts about the sustainability of the strong dollar, with some analysts predicting a rotation towards US stocks and currencies, but not expecting this trend to last until the end of the year [3] - Some analysts maintain a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar due to concerns over Trump's borrowing plans and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, although they are open to changing their views if US growth continues to exceed expectations [3] - Caution is advised as historical data shows that the S&P 500 typically performs poorly in August and September, suggesting a good time for reducing positions and adopting a defensive stance [3] Group 4 - A warning has been issued regarding the potential for a sustained dollar rebound to become a key pain point for global investors, as speculative funds withdraw from European stocks and reduce bearish bets on US Treasuries, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [4] - If the current dollar strength continues, it could pose significant challenges for investors who have benefited from non-US asset allocations this year, potentially exerting further downward pressure on global stock markets, gold, and emerging market assets [4]