重大市场趋势！“做空美元”交易正在瓦解？

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing its first monthly increase of the year, driven by strong economic data, reduced concerns about US asset prospects, and growing belief that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates for some time [1][2] Group 1: Economic Trends - The dollar index is trading at a two-month high and is expected to rise by 3% in July, marking its first monthly growth of the year [2] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped below 1.15, heading towards its largest monthly decline since May 2023 [2] - Strong performance in the US stock market, particularly driven by artificial intelligence, has led to a rotation of investments back towards US assets [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - There has been a significant shift in sentiment among global fund managers, with bearish positions on the dollar being one of the most crowded trades [2] - Speculative short positions on the dollar are slowing down, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [1][2] - The trend of favoring international assets over US assets is waning, as indicated by Barclays Bank's analysis [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express mixed views on the sustainability of the dollar's strength, with some expecting a potential downturn due to external economic pressures [3][4] - The performance of US technology stocks and the AI boom is anticipated to continue driving the US market ahead of others [3] - Concerns about rising tariffs potentially stalling US economic growth are noted, which could impact market dynamics [3][4]