法德通胀升温叠加美联储按兵不动 欧洲央行降息概率骤减

Core Viewpoint - The market expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate policy have significantly shifted, with traders now believing that the ECB will maintain the 2% benchmark rate until the end of the year, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut to less than 50% [1][2] Group 1: ECB Rate Policy - Since initiating the rate cut cycle in June last year, the ECB has lowered the benchmark rate by a total of 200 basis points to the current level [1] - The ECB's decision to pause the rate cut cycle is supported by recent economic data, including a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth and a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the Eurozone's GDP [1] - The Eurozone's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly up from the previous value of 1.9%, aligning with the ECB's target inflation rate [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy direction significantly impacts the ECB's decisions, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that future policy will be "fully data-dependent" [2] - Recent inflation indicators from parts of France and Germany have shown slight rebounds, contributing to the adjustment of market expectations [2] - There are internal divisions within the ECB regarding further rate cuts, with dovish officials advocating for cuts if economic growth underperforms, while hawkish officials believe the current inflation slowdown is in line with expectations [2]