创新药基金“王者归来”，火爆行情还能持续吗？

Core Viewpoint - After four years of adjustment, the innovative drug fund is expected to make a strong comeback in 2025, with significant excess returns observed in the first half of this year [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Innovative Drug Funds - In the first half of the year, the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index rose by 60.27%, while the Wind Innovative Drug Index increased by 23.93% [1][5]. - Among the funds that achieved over 40% returns in the first half, more than 70% were heavily invested in innovative drugs, and over 50% of funds with returns exceeding 20% in the second quarter also focused on innovative drugs [3][4]. - The iShares Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF saw a net subscription of nearly 2.5 billion units in the second quarter, with its scale reaching 4.647 billion yuan by June 30 [5]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers remain optimistic about the structural market for innovative drugs, citing potential significant business development transactions and favorable domestic policies supporting innovation [2][9]. - The innovative drug market in China is estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, indicating substantial future growth potential [10]. - Fund managers believe that the current rise in innovative drug prices is supported by strong fundamentals, and the market is not yet in a bubble [10]. Group 3: Specific Fund Performance - The 工银健康产业 fund, managed by 谭冬寒 and 丁洋, achieved over 43% returns in the first half, significantly outperforming its benchmark [6][12]. - The 工银新经济人民币 fund, which shifted focus to innovative drugs in 2023, reported a 52.92% return in the first half, with nearly 60% of its investments in innovative drugs [8][12]. - Both funds have seen significant growth in scale, with 工银健康产业 increasing by 22.45% despite a general decline in the active equity fund market [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund managers are focusing on four investment strategies: identifying leading companies in the innovative drug sector, looking for companies with significant single product sales, finding emerging innovative drug leaders, and monitoring traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovative drugs [11]. - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue benefiting from structural reforms and increased recognition of Chinese companies in the global market [10].