“多品种跌停”再现，“反内卷”预期行情告一段落

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the black and building materials sectors, leading to increased activity in risk control departments of futures companies [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On July 31, the black and building materials sectors saw a continued decline, with coking coal futures contracts hitting the limit down [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a significant drop, with the main contracts experiencing declines of approximately 7.69% to 8.00% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The previous surge in coking coal prices was driven by expectations of supply contraction due to "anti-involution" policies, which led to a decrease in coal inventory at coking coal mines [3] - As of the end of July, the inventory of coking coal at 523 coking coal mines fell below 3 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3] - Despite the price rebound, the overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied in the short term, with daily production of coking coal increasing for four consecutive weeks [3][4] Group 3: Price Transmission and Market Sentiment - The price increase in coking coal has not effectively transmitted to downstream products, as prices for related chemicals and steel have not risen proportionately [4] - Downstream coking enterprises are still facing losses, and there has been no significant increase in coke production [4] - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to a retreat in coking coal and glass prices from their highs, indicating a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" expectations is expected to stabilize, with a potential price correction ahead, possibly dropping below 1,000 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract [4] - Continuous monitoring of the "anti-involution" policies and their impact on the coking coal and glass industries is necessary [5]