【UNFX 课堂】金价暴跌100美元美联储“猎杀”黄金多头反弹面临三重绝杀

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant turmoil, with New York gold prices plummeting by $100 in a single day, marking the largest drop in three years, resulting in a $20 billion liquidation of long positions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The unexpected rebound in the U.S. CPI to 3.2% signals that high interest rates will persist, leading to a long-term bearish outlook for gold [2] - The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate hikes is misleading, as the dot plot suggests only one rate cut in 2024, contrary to market expectations of four [2] - The actual interest rate is critical; if it exceeds 1.8%, gold is likely to face significant selling pressure [2] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Capital Flows - The dollar index has risen by 3.2%, surpassing the 104 mark, while gold ETFs have seen a significant outflow of 22 tons, indicating a shift in capital towards the dollar [3] - Factors contributing to this dollar strength include the Bank of Japan's policy changes, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, and economic concerns in the Eurozone [3] - The inverse relationship between the dollar index and gold price is highlighted, with a 90% probability of reverse movements [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - The breach of the psychological support level at $1900 triggered automated selling by quantitative funds, leading to a cascade of stop-loss orders and further price declines [3] - A significant reduction in leveraged positions was noted, with COMEX gold futures long positions decreasing by 42,000 contracts (approximately 84 tons) [4] - The volatility index for gold surged by 92%, indicating increased risk in the market [4] Group 4: Strategic Responses and Recommendations - Two scenarios are outlined for potential market recovery: a sudden economic downturn or persistent inflation, with specific strategies for each [4] - The ultimate defense strategy includes a combination of physical gold and mining stocks, as well as hedging against currency risks [4] - Emphasis is placed on using hedging strategies instead of single-direction bets, and closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's dot plot for market insights [5]