北大光华：外卖消费券预计撬动6760亿元消费增量

Core Insights - The research conducted by Peking University's Guanghua School of Management indicates that flash purchase coupons significantly stimulate consumer spending, with a multiplier effect of 6.76 for every 1 yuan of effective subsidy [1][5][6] - The study found a positive correlation between the penetration rate of flash purchases and the average offline revenue of restaurant merchants, with no evidence of cannibalization of dine-in services [1][5] - The report highlights that the positive impact of flash purchase coupons is most pronounced for the smallest 25% of merchants, suggesting that small and medium-sized businesses benefit more from these initiatives [1][6] Summary by Sections Consumer Spending Impact - Flash purchase coupons have a consumption pull coefficient of 1.65 for takeout, 3.11 for online e-commerce (excluding flash purchases), and an overall consumption pull coefficient of 6.76 [5] - Compared to international studies, where cash subsidies typically convert 20% to 40% into consumption, China's digital economy infrastructure allows for a more effective use of digital consumption vouchers [5] Merchant Revenue Effects - The report contradicts the notion that large-scale subsidies primarily benefit chain brands, showing that flash purchase coupons have a more significant positive impact on small and medium-sized merchants [6] - Data indicates that flash purchase coupons contribute to a 44.5% increase in offline revenue for small merchants, addressing challenges such as insufficient market demand [6] Relationship Between Takeout and Dine-in - The study reveals that takeout and dine-in services coexist rather than compete, with online and offline integration becoming essential for merchants to meet diverse consumer needs [7] - Analysis of 40,000 continuously operating restaurant merchants showed that those participating in flash purchases experienced an average weekly revenue increase of 1,744.69 yuan, representing a 101.5% growth compared to pre-launch figures [7]