千问 APP 全面接入阿里生态，AI 从"聊 天对话"迈入"办事时代" [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 陈筱(分析师) 021-38675863 chenxiao@gtht.com S0880515040003 陈星光(分析师) 021-23219104 chenxingguang@gtht.com S0880525040043 陈俊希(分析师) 021-38032025 chenjunxi@gtht.com S0880520120009 杨昊(分析师) 021-38032025 yanghao4@gtht.com S0880524020001 孙小雯(分析师) 021-23154120 sunxiaowen@gtht.com S0880525040021 李瑶(分析师) 021-23185669 liyao6@gtht.com S0880525120001 本报告导读： 近期千问 APP 全面接入阿里生态，AI 从"聊天对话"迈入"办事时代"，我们认为 随着互联网巨头的大力推广和投入，有望加速旗下生态和大模型融合，以实现 AI 应 用落地。 投资要点： [Table_Industr ...

哪怕是目前没有找到商业化路径，而且会带来算力成本，中国科技公司仍在争夺AI对话App这个入口 文｜《财经》研究员 吴俊宇 编辑 | 谢丽容 AI对话App正在成为科技公司竞相争夺的关键阵地。包括字节跳动、阿里、腾讯、蚂蚁集团都在投入资 源做大自己的产品。 1月15日，阿里旗下的千问App宣布打通淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务，可实 现点外卖、购物、订机票等功能。 阿里千问C端事业群总裁吴嘉在千问产品发布会上演示了如何使用千问App语音下单购买奶茶——千问 App迅速调用淘宝闪购下单并完成AI支付。随后，骑手就将奶茶送达现场。 截至2026年1月，千问C端（含千问App和网页等渠道，且去重之后）月活跃用户超过1亿。目前，千问 的月活跃用户规模仅次于豆包、DeepSeek。市场调研机构QuestMobile截至2025年9月数据显示，国内AI 对话产品的月活跃用户规模分别是：豆包1.72亿、DeepSeek 1.44亿、元宝0.33亿。 《财经》了解到，随着各家产品2025年四季度密集迭代，上述格局仍在快速变化。2025年12月，字节跳 动旗下的豆包App日活跃用户超过1亿。截至2026年1月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the U.S. and China has deteriorated, creating significant concerns for investors due to rising tensions and domestic policies in China that negatively impact investment markets [1][2][5]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Trade between the U.S. and China has increased significantly over the past 25 years, but tensions have also escalated, particularly regarding intellectual property theft, costing the U.S. economy at least $200 billion annually [2]. - Tariffs and restrictions have been imposed by both the Trump and Biden administrations, leading to retaliatory actions from China, including restrictions on rare earth exports critical for technology manufacturing [3]. Group 2: Domestic Policies in China - President Xi Jinping's policies have adversely affected major publicly-traded companies, exemplified by the punishment of Ant Group and Alibaba, resulting in significant fines and loss of control for their founders [6][7][8]. - The Chinese government has targeted other technology companies, leading to a loss of approximately $1 trillion in wealth from the stock market due to arbitrary fines and sanctions [8]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - China's economic model, heavily reliant on government direction, has led to an oversupply of housing, with estimates of up to 90 million vacant homes, contributing to bankruptcies among property developers [12]. - The autocratic approach of the Communist Party is seen as detrimental to innovation and economic growth, as highlighted by economist James Robinson's predictions [11]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Given the risks associated with investing in China, alternatives such as the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) are recommended, which has outperformed traditional emerging markets indexes by delivering over 15% annual returns since its inception in 2019 [13]. - A new emerging markets ETF from Vanguard, VEXC, specifically excludes China and is considered a promising investment option [14].

分析师/智涵 校对/Tina 策划/Eason 来源/第一新声 1月15日，阿里在杭州发布千问App的最新进展时，行业的关注点迅速聚焦到了一件事上：AI，终于开始"自己办事"了。 从接入淘宝、支付宝、闪购、飞猪、高德，到上线"AI付"和政务服务能力，千问不仅能点外卖、订机票、买商品，还能通过一句话完成签证、户口、公积 金等50项民生事务的办理。这些看似分散的功能背后，指向的是一个更本质的变化——AI第一次在中国市场，真正跑通了跨多个App的执行闭环。 过去两年，AI产品能力的提升更多体现在"能说""会理解""能生成"，但一旦进入真实生活场景，用户仍需在不同应用之间反复跳转。AI像是一个高明的顾 问，却始终站在流程之外。千问的尝试，恰恰是把AI推进到了流程之中，让它成为调度者、执行者和结果交付者。 这也让一个更大的问题浮出水面：当千问作为中国首款真正意义上的跨App AI智能体落地，这究竟意味着新一轮入口之争的升级，还是一次生态"围墙"的 加高？答案，需要从智能体的本质、阿里的生态能力，以及对手的结构性限制中逐层拆解。 从"会回答"到"能办事"的能力跃迁 AI智能体的核心价值，并不在于"理解得多深"，而在于"能 ...

文/庄帅 "帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦"，在1月15日的千问发布会现场，千问C端事业群总裁吴嘉对着千问App说出这句话后不久，淘宝闪购的骑手就将奶茶送 达会议现场。 整个过程没有跳转其他应用，没有繁琐的筛选和手动确认，一次对话即完成点单、支付和配送指令的发出。 发布会当天，千问App宣布已全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务，在全球首次实现点外卖、买东西、订机票、订酒店等AI购 物功能，并正式向所有用户开放测试。 百联咨询创始人、零售电商行业专家庄帅认为，阿里正式开启了"对话即交易"的零售电商新纪元，不仅极大地降低了交易摩擦，还特别适用于高频和即时 性消费场景。 "这也是2025年阿里坚定大消费平台战略，推动淘宝闪购快速发展，并集合飞猪、高德等生态业务，使淘宝从电商平台走向大消费平台的战略核心所在。" 无论是AI购物还是大消费战略，都体现了阿里对AI时代消费本质的深刻理解。从用户体验出发，阿里重新定义"平台"——从连接人与商品，升级为连接 人与生活本身，打造全场景、一站式的消费服务体验。 当前，AI购物已成为全球零售电商行业发展的新趋势，全球巨头们正竞相将AI与线上电商和线下的零售商业 ...

今日热点导览 TOP 3 大新闻 贾国龙罗永浩被微博禁言，罗永浩朋友圈最新发声 1月15日21时50分许，新黄河记者从罗永浩方面有关人士确认，@罗永浩的十字路口 以及@西贝贾国龙 两个账号均被禁言。微博CEO王高飞"来去之间"发 布微博：以后想论战，应该还是需要通过媒体采访的方式来进行~~"网络名人账号行为负面清单……（八）组织约架论战。因个人争端和利益冲突等原 因，策划或组织网上论战骂战、线下约架，攻击竞争对手，挑起网络戾气，占用公共资源。" 1月16日晚间，贾国龙曾在"西贝人心声"账号发布题为《西贝遭罗永浩污蔑回应（一）》的微博。"我是贾国龙。现在还没到十点。我在这里，做出全面回 应。这是第一篇。因为今天，罗永浩公开回应的最后一句，再一次恶意煽动公共情绪。"贾国龙表示："我首先明确表达，自去年9月10日至今，我本人和 公司所有员工，没有针对罗永浩报过一次警，这些年西贝依法纳税合法经营，从来没搞过任何蝇营狗苟之事。"他还表示，其妻子张丽平报的唯一一次 警，是全家被人肉，连不到五岁的小孙女信息都被挖出来，妻子到香山派出所报警。去年罗永浩制造的网暴期间，全国西贝门店服务员被骂被打被逼下跪 数十次。目前该内容已不 ...

Company - OpenAI will begin testing advertisements in ChatGPT to seek new revenue sources [5] - Google has requested a U.S. judge to postpone the order to share data during its appeal [5] - JPMorgan has surpassed Dimensional to become the world's largest active ETF company [6] - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to decline, raising concerns about their IPO prospects [6] - Spotify plans to generate significant profits through another price increase [6] Industry - The U.S. housing builder confidence index has dropped to 37 in January, marking the first decline in five months and falling below all estimates [5] - The U.S. manufacturing output is expected to grow in the last few months of 2025 [5] - The job market remains a concern, with the Federal Reserve advised to prepare for potential rate cuts [6] - The artificial intelligence sector is accelerating job reductions in key global industries [6] - Oil prices have slightly recovered, but traders remain cautious about risks related to Iran [6]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app aims to transition the AI industry from "chat dialogue" to "task execution," integrating various services within Alibaba's ecosystem to enhance user experience and capture new commercial opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Product Development and User Engagement - The "Qianwen" app has surpassed 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, exceeding management expectations and indicating significant user engagement [2]. - The app supports over 400 task types, including application development, office work, and data analysis, and collaborates with various professional databases to ensure authoritative and timely outputs [2]. - "Qianwen" is designed as a general-purpose agent to assist users in managing repetitive tasks, enhancing efficiency across various life scenarios [2]. Group 2: Ecosystem and Market Position - Alibaba has built a comprehensive consumer ecosystem over nearly 30 years, covering various needs such as clothing, food, travel, and entertainment, which positions the company favorably for long-term growth [3]. - The introduction of transaction subsidies in the "Qianwen" app has created price advantages in food delivery and flight booking compared to competitors, indicating a strategic move to attract more users [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company maintains its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26-28 at 94 billion, 109.7 billion, and 138.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in its financial performance [3]. - The target price based on SOTP valuation remains at $180.0 for US stocks and HK$175.3 for Hong Kong stocks, corresponding to 27.5x and 21.9x FY27-28 non-GAAP projected PE [4].

It was a highly anticipated AI launch in the China AI scene. The biggest of China's cloud companies, Alibaba Group Holding Limited ( BABA ), is trying to recapture the glory days of its pre-techJR Research is an opportunistic investor. I was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst, and also by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. I identify attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially genera ...

过去两年，AI原生应用多聚焦于内容生成、知识问答等轻交互场景。但随着竞争升维，头部玩家纷纷将AI助手从"信息中 介"升级为"任务执行者"。 除了阿里将千问App接入生态内核心业务之外，其他头部公司也积极争夺AI"超级入口"。 本报记者 袁传玺 随着大模型技术趋于成熟、算力成本持续下探、数据治理体系逐步完善，AI正从"能做什么"的技术验证阶段，加速迈 向"怎么用好"的商业化落地周期。在此背景下，一场围绕"超级入口"的争夺战在科技巨头间全面打响。 1月15日，阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（以下简称"阿里"）正式宣布，千问App全面接入淘宝、高德、支付宝等核心业务。 用户只需一句自然语言指令，千问App即可在端内完成商品推荐、比价、下单、支付全流程，全程无需跳转其他App。此前， 字节跳动、腾讯等巨头也纷纷布局，争抢"第一触点"。 有业内人士对《证券日报》记者表示，在这场重塑数字生态格局的竞争中，谁能率先构建起"对话即应用"的能力，谁就可 能掌握未来十年AI时代的流量命脉与商业主动权。 AI助手升级为"任务执行者" 信任与安全是关键 如果说软件层面的AI助手是"大脑"，那么硬件载体则是"躯体"。2025年下半年以来，入 ...