今日多条要点，一起来看详情↓ ↓ ↓ 京东折扣超市宿豫店开业，单日客流近5万 京东折扣超市宿豫店于11月26日正式开业，首日吸引近5万人次客流。门店采用双层卖场设计，面积约5000平方米，设有超200个免费停车位。生鲜区成消 费热点，干尧榴莲18.9元/斤、鲜鸡蛋9.9元/托等低价商品引发抢购，榴莲单日售出超4吨，鸡蛋多次补货。三文鱼79元/斤、猪肉类销量超6吨，消费者 称"价格比日料店划算"。该店落地标志着京东完成宿迁全域覆盖，通过供应链优势实现"天天低价"。开业期间推出满129元抽奖活动，进一步刺激消费。 业内认为，京东以"线下折扣+超级供应链"模式持续拓展区域市场，为传统零售转型提供新样本。 特海国际Q3经营利润降15.4% 特海国际（09658.HK）公布2025年第三季度业绩，收入同比增长7.8%至2.14亿美元，同店销售额增2.3%至1.82亿美元。期内新开2家海底捞餐厅，关闭1家 并调整1家为第二品牌，门店总数维持126家。平均翻台率提升至3.9次/天。然而，经营利润同比下降15.4%至1260万美元，利润率降至5.9%；期内利润仅 360万美元，较去年同期3770万美元大幅下滑，主要因汇兑损失 ...

Like China, Alibaba isn’t firing on all cylinders, writes @julianaliu, with a stark split between the cloud and e-commerce arms (via @opinion) https://t.co/TPyQwVON2l ...

Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY2026Q2 (corresponding to calendar year Q3 2025) revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations, with a same-store revenue growth of 15% when excluding Gaoxin Retail and Intime [1] - Adjusted EBITA was 9.1 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.5 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 13.5 billion yuan [1] E-commerce Performance - The core e-commerce segment TR led growth, with Q3 2025 revenue from the China e-commerce group increasing by 15.5% year-on-year, maintaining stable market share for Taotian GMV [2] - Customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point increase in TR [2] - EBITA for the quarter declined by 76% to 10.5 billion yuan due to investments in instant retail, resulting in a 31 percentage point drop in EBITA margin [2] - Excluding flash purchase impacts, adjusted EBITA for China e-commerce showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, with estimated flash purchase losses around 36 billion yuan [2] AI and Cloud Growth - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 28%, with internal and external cloud revenues increasing by 34% and 29% respectively [2] - AI-related revenue maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth, with Alibaba Cloud holding the largest market share in China's AI cloud market at 35.8% as of H1 2025 [2] - Adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud was 9%, meeting expectations, with planned capital expenditures exceeding 380 billion yuan over the next three years [2] Investment Outlook - As a leading player in e-commerce and cloud computing, Alibaba is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage driven by AI [2] - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 are projected at 1,039.9 billion yuan, 1,137.3 billion yuan, and 1,262.7 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 110.9 billion yuan, 167.9 billion yuan, and 206.5 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about long-term ecological synergy and strong demand for cloud services, while actively investing in AI infrastructure. Short-term losses from flash sales are being mitigated, but there are pressures from the e-commerce base. The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been lowered, but the long-term outlook remains positive with a "buy" rating maintained [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2026 Q2, the company's revenue reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5%, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 245.2 billion yuan. Cloud business revenue exceeded expectations [1]. - The non-GAAP net profit was 10.35 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 72%, falling short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 13.51 billion yuan [1]. - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was below expectations, with customer management revenue increasing by 10% year-over-year, driven by enhanced technology service fees and improved penetration rates [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - In the Chinese e-commerce segment, flash sales are expected to drive traffic growth on the main site, improving order density and average transaction value, which may help reduce losses and lower customer acquisition costs [2]. - The international digital commerce segment reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 10%, with adjusted EBITA turning profitable [1]. - The cloud intelligence group saw a year-over-year revenue growth of 34%, with public cloud services continuing to expand and an adjusted EBITA margin of 9.0%, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter [1]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to prioritize stabilizing market share in the short term, with flash sales expected to enhance main site traffic and improve overall efficiency [2]. - There is a strong commitment to AI capabilities and investments, with potential additional investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan over three years, which may further expand cloud market share [2]. - The company has a remaining share buyback program of 19.1 billion USD, approximately 5.1% of the current market value, effective until March 2027 [2].

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/于伯韬 云业务维持高景气。本季度阿里云智能集团收入同比增长34.5%至约398.24 亿元，高于市场乐观预期， 其中对外收入增速29%，AI 相关产品收入已连续第九个季度实现三位数同比增长。AI 需求的爆发不仅 拉动算力、存储、网络等基础云资源使用率提升，同样带动数据库、中间件等高附加值产品放量，通义 大模型及行业解决方案加速在电商、本地生活、企业服务等场景落地，形成"云+AI+应用"的闭环。与 此同时，公司继续在AI算力与云基础设施上大手笔投入，本季度资本开支达315 亿元，过去四个季度在 AI+云基础设施上的资本开支累计约1,200 亿元。 盈利预测和估值：预计FY2026-2027 阿里巴巴的收入增速分别为3.60%和12.04%，Non-GAAP 净利润分 别为1142.01 亿元和1599.60 亿元，同比增速分别为-27.78%和40.07%。采用分部估值法，对应中国电商 集团、云智能集团每ADS 估值分别为125.64 美元和73.54 美元，目标价为199.18 美元/ADS，对应港股 193.71 港币/股。 风险提示：闪购减亏低预期，闪购单量和市占低预期 ...

闪购UE 改善，份额基本稳定。我们测算2QFY26 淘宝闪购EBITA 亏损367 亿元，系7、8 月份扩充单量 的过程中投入较大，公司表示10 月以来，闪购在订单份额稳定的情况下，单均UE 较峰值减亏一半，主 要来自订单结构优化、客单价提升和履约效率优化，我们预计3QFY26 闪购EBITA 亏损190 亿元。 电商客户管理收入（CMR）承压。本季度CMR 同增10%，不含闪购的中国电商EBITA 同增中个位数。 考虑4Q 以来消费相对疲软、国补影响退坡以及技术服务费的高基数，我们预计阿里3QFY26 CMR 同增 6%，电商GMV 和CMR 均有一定压力。 研究员：白洋/徐卓楠/吴维佳/王秋婷/刘泓蔚 2QFY26 收入和调整EBITA 高于我们预期 公司公布2QFY26（3Q25）业绩：收入同增4.8%至2,478 亿元，剔除资产出表影响后可比口径同增 15%，高于我们预期系中国电商表现较优；调整EBITA 同比下滑77.6%至91 亿元，主要系淘宝闪购投入 加大，高于我们预期主要系云和国际业务较优。 发展趋势 云收入同比增长加速。2QFY26 云计算收入同增34%，其中内外部客户收入分别同增29%和5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's FY2026 Q2 performance shows a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase, but a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.4 billion yuan, a 72% decrease, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] E-commerce - Alibaba's China e-commerce group achieved revenue of 132.6 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with customer management revenue at 78.9 billion yuan, a 10% increase, reflecting a steady improvement in monetization rates [1] - Adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, a 76% year-on-year decline, primarily due to investments in new instant retail businesses, but excluding these impacts, the core e-commerce EBITA showed single-digit growth [1] Instant Retail - The order structure for instant retail improved, with the loss per order (UE) halving since the peak in July and August, driven by a higher proportion of high-value orders and reduced logistics costs [2] - Non-food categories also saw rapid growth, with orders from Hema and other platforms increasing by 30% month-on-month [2] - The company plans to enhance user experience and focus on high-value customer management, indicating a commitment to long-term investment in instant retail [2] Cloud and AI - The cloud intelligence group reported revenue growth of 28%, exceeding expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth [3] - Adjusted EBITA was 3.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase, with an EBITA margin of 9%, indicating strong profitability in the cloud segment [3] - The company anticipates further capital expenditure beyond the previously set target of 380 billion yuan over three years, driven by robust customer demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for its e-commerce core competitiveness, growth potential in instant retail, and long-term growth in cloud and AI businesses, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 106.9 billion, 166.6 billion, and 201.8 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [3] - A target price of 185 HKD per share is set, with a "strong buy" rating maintained [3]

重申"买入"评级。我们看好1）阿里云在B 端与C 端的商业化变现能力、2 ） 即时零售UE 的改善。我们 预计公司2026-2028 财年收入为10537/11436/12698 亿元；non-GAAP 归母净利974/1332/1707 亿元。基于 国内电商10x 2027e P/E、云计算40x 2027e P/E、国际商业3x 2027eP/S、其他业务 3x 2027e P/S，我们给 予公司（9988.HK）200 港元（（/ BABA.N）206 美元目标价，重申"买入"评级。 2）国际商业录得348 亿元收入，同比增长10%；经调整EBITA 实现转正，约2 亿元。3）阿里云录得398 亿元收入，同比增速进一步提升至34%；经调整EBITA 约36 亿元，同比增长35%。4）所有其他业务录 得630 亿元收入，同比下降25%；经调整EBITA -34 亿元，亏损同比扩大84%。 即时零售与电商协同效应显现，UE 显著改善。本季度即时零售业务规模持续扩大，推动淘宝APP 月活 跃消费者同比快速增长，同时带动客户管理收入增长。管理层在业绩会上披露，11 月份淘宝闪购的UE 亏损较7-8 月已下降一半 ...

国际数字商业（AIDC）：扩张策略趋稳，UE 持续改善。FY2026Q2 国际数字商业集团收入同比增长 10%，其中国际零售商业/国际批发商业同比分别增长10%/11%，此外EBITA达到1.62 亿元，同比大幅减 亏，主因速卖通和Trendyol 通过物流和运营效率的优化实现UE 大幅改善，探索更多本地商家的合作丰 富产品供给。 阿里云单季度继续提速，盈利能力保持稳定。FY2026Q2 阿里云收入同比增长34%（不计入阿里巴巴并 表业务收入同比增长29%），EBITA 率环比上季度小幅提升，资本开支或由于付款周期影响环比小幅回 落至315 亿元。我们认为，阿里云的增速主要来自于AI 带动，人工智能相关产品的收入连续第九个季 度实现三位数同比增长。同时，阿里云出海的进展不可小觑，凭借性价比、模型能力及服务等优势阿里 云在海外正被越来越多的市场所接受。未来阿里云有望延续高增的势头。 投资建议：整体来看本轮公司财报具备较多亮点：第一，淘宝闪购的投入可控、对主站的拉动效益显 著，预计后续规模效应叠加运营效率优化，UE 将持续改善。第二，云业务增长持续加速，未来有望高 增势头。从中长期维度，即时零售的投入有望拉动用户 ...

中国电商集团：CMR 稳健增长，闪购高效减亏 中国电商集团2QFY26 收入同增15.5%至1,326 亿元，CMR 同增10.1%，主要得益于变现率的同比改善。 2QFY26 中国电商集团调整后EBITA 利润105 亿，同比-76.3%，基本符合华泰预期的108 亿元。管理层 表示若不考虑闪购投入的影响，电商集团EBITA 在2QFY26 季度实现同比中个位数正增长，据此我们估 算闪购投入影响约367 亿元，符合我们此前预期。在闪购业务上，管理层表示10 月以来闪购单均亏损较 7-8 月时已收窄一半，订单份额保持稳定且GMV 份额有所提升（得益于客单价提升），并表示闪购对 用户活跃度及相关品类成交均有明显拉动，因此对CMR 产生正向影响。 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/侯杰 阿里巴巴2QFY26 总收入2,478 亿元，同增4.8%，好于VA 一致预期（下同）/华泰预测的同增2.2/2.9%， 主因云业务增速超预期；经调整EBITA 为91 亿元，同比-77.6%，经调整EBITA 利润率3.7%，逊于一致 预期的5.3%但好于华泰预测的3.2%。管理层在2QFY26 业绩会上表示公司持续投入于全栈AI ...