通胀粘性担忧升温，交易员紧盯通胀数据以判断9月降息前景

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential delay in interest rate cuts, shifting market focus to upcoming inflation data [1] - Following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, market sentiment reversed, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 80% to 40% [1] - Economists expect the core PCE monthly rate to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank anticipated a hawkish outcome from the Fed meeting, with expectations for the first rate cut pushed to December [5] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current economic conditions do not warrant a rate cut [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen by approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April [5] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [6] - Powell indicated that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence their decision-making [6] - Investors are increasingly seeking to hedge against inflation risks, as evidenced by the increased allocation to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [6]