通胀粘性担忧升温 交易员紧盯通胀数据判断9月降息前景

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates has shifted market expectations, with a significant reduction in the probability of a rate cut in September from 80% to 40% [1] - The upcoming PCE price index data is crucial for assessing persistent inflation pressures, with economists predicting a rise in core PCE month-on-month from 0.2% to 0.3% [1] - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the two-year yield rising by 7 basis points on Wednesday and then retreating by 1 basis point to 3.93% on Thursday [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank's U.S. interest rate strategy head indicated that the market should focus on the delayed possibility of rate cuts, with the first expected cut not occurring until December [2] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current labor market conditions and inflation levels do not warrant a rate cut [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April, indicating persistent inflation concerns in the market [2] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [3] - Powell suggested that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3] - The demand for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) is rising among investors, reflecting a growing concern over inflation risks in the current economic environment [3]